Opening a shop in a recession

Post on 18 Jun 2009 • Category: Investment

As risk of default rises, so does the rate of interest. As the rate of interest rises, so does the likelihood of default. As defaults rise, rate of job loss increases, as rate of job losses increase, less people earning leads to less people spending meaning a higher rate of default and foreclosure on businesses. This vicious circle can only be stopped by fiscal policy incentives i.e. the central bank lowering interest rates or embarking on quantitive easing. Even then, banks being as hard hit as they have, the interest rate cuts are not necessarily being passed on to borrowers: ironically the banks’ prudence is now holding us in recession, when their recklessness put us here in the first place, (indicative of bankers having the collective intelligence of a herd of sheep?) Anyway, all these tight-fisted consumers and fearful lenders make the current climate prohibitive to potential shopkeepers, unless the right market is chosen.

Some markets thrive in times of negativity. Particularly, studies have shown; second hand guitar shops. As people become desperate to meet mortgage repayments, guitars are one of the first things to be sold at a knock down price, making a musical instrument shop a terrific choice for a start-up in these otherwise-prohibitive circumstances. While strings, plectrums, music books and the like can be bought and sold as new, the guitars keep flooding in, as a seemingly saleable household item. Of course this is not foolproof advice, as if guitars are being sold by consumers, then they are probably not being bought too. However, by buying from the worst hit areas (near a recently closed factory) and then selling in a less affected area, profits from opening musical instrument stores are quite possible.